No Sign Yet Of Any Significant Inflow From Southern Europe


Balanced Migration, Current Affairs, Economics, Emigration, Employment, European Union, Policy, Population

1. To see if there has been a recent increase in
immigration from the EU14 there are three useful sources of data: Long Term
International Migration Data (LTIM); Annual Population Survey (APS) and;
National Insurance Numbers (NINOs).  The
APS data has only been available since 2004 and so this is the start date for
the analysis

LTIM
data

2. Since 2004 annual immigration from the EU14 has
been estimated at between 70,000 and 90,000 while the estimate for net
migration from the EU14 has usually varied between 30,000 and 40,000. It did
fall in December 2010 to 18,000 but then returned to 34,000 in 2011. The latest
figure for the year ending September 2012 is 30,000. However, it should be
noted that the error margin for EU14 migration in +/- 15,000 so small changes
from year to year are not significant.

APS
data

3. This is also an estimate based on a sample of the
population. Table One below shows the population estimates for the EU14 and
separately for Greece, Spain, France and Italy.

Table One: Annual Population estimates for the EU14
and key countries

Table 1

Figures in thousands

The figure for EU14 does indicate that the
population in the UK increased in 2011.

 NINOs

4. Unlike the LTIM and APS data the data on national
insurance numbers is an actual number and not an estimate. Table Two below show
the annual number of NINOS issued for the EU14 and separately for Greece,
Spain, France and Italy.

Table Two: NINOs issued to nationals of the EU14 and
key countries

 
Table 2

This shows a clear increase in NINOs issued for the
EU14 as a whole and for Spain in particular, in 2011.  This suggests that immigration from the EU14
is increasing however it gives no indication as to how many migrants from these
countries are staying in the UK for over a year (or indefinitely).

Conclusion

5. There is some evidence to suggest that
immigration from the EU14 is increasing however it does not yet indicate a
large upsurge in migration. The NINOs figures for 2012 which will be issued
this August will provide additional insight.

 

 

16th July 2013

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